Regardless of the wind strength of Tropical Cyclone Alfred, one of its most dangerous components will be the rainfall and flooding it brings across southeast Qld and northeast NSW.
While models do vary significantly where the heaviest rain will fall, they are quite consistent on the amounts. Across the entire region, and as far south as Sydney and Wollongong, falls of 50-100mm are forecast.
In the areas most directly impacted, widespread falls of 200-400mm are expected between Thursday and Saturday, with isolated totals of 600-1200mm. Some of this rain will fall in short periods of time, making flash-flooding a high risk. The most exposed locations could see rainfall rates of 100-250mm falling in a six-hour period.
Of particular note, areas in the Greater Lismore region and possibly the Dorrigo region are areas known to see exceptionally heavy rainfall like those that are forecast and could see the upper end of forecast rainfall.
Rainfall will be heaviest in the southeast quadrant of the system, where the most moisture, convection, and highest winds will also be.
These rainfall rates forecast are heavy enough to lead to widespread major flooding across a number of river catchments. River levels could also near some of the most historic flood levels in the region.
Source Credit: NSW Incident Alerts